Friday, February 24, 2017

Blog #4

Image result for the electoral connection

The Electoral Connection 

  • In the book Congress The Electoral Connection by: David R. Mayhew.  In this book Mayhew proposes the theory that people in congress are single minded seekers of re-election.
  • This is achieved through advertising, credit claiming, and position taking.

Advertising:

Congressmen Rick Nolan is not a stranger to the advertising game.   In the 2016 house race between him and Stewart Mills, Rick Nolan spent over 2.8 million dollars on his campaign.  This money gets spent on things like the commercial advertising seen in the video above. This amount of spending would support Mayhew's theory because Rick Nolan spent a lot of money in order to be re-election.  In fact he spent far more than the average house seat would spend.  Based on the chart below the average seat spent about 1.6 million dollars.  that means congressman Nolan spent over 1 million dollars above the average house seat on re-election.

Campaign Cmte and Leadership PAC Fundraising, 2015 - 2016
Raised: $3,059,107
Spent: $2,896,970
Cash on Hand: $188,801
Debts: $0
Last Report:Saturday, December 31, 2016

Position Taking:

Rick Nolan has often taken to social media like Facebook and you tube to publicly take positions for all of his constituents to see.  Below I have two examples of positions Rick Nolan has publicly taken over Facebook just in the last month.

America needs an immediate, massive new public investment in the aging, crumbling, failing transportation infrastructure that threatens our public safety. This overhaul is critical to our economy and our national security, and to the creation of some 13 million new good-paying construction jobs across Minnesota and the Nation.

The above is an example of Rick Nolan taking a position on the American infrastructure. In this post he calls improvements to transportation infrastructure in the United States.  He provides a link to a website that gives information about the status of deficient bridges across the United States.  For example in Minnehaha county there are 56 deficient bridges.  By also adds to his position on "Jobs, Jobs, Jobs" by fixing the infrastructure problems across america we could provide 13 million new good-paying construction jobs
Minnesotans receive only $0.54 in return for every dollar they pay in federal income tax. I've made it my mission in Congress to bring more federal dollars back to Minnesota’s Eighth District to rebuild our crumbling transportation infrastructure, support our public schools and create good paying jobs.
More info: http://read.bi/2gjzY8b
No automatic alt text available.
The above is another example of position taking.  In this case Us Rep Rick Nolan is taking a position to increase the amount of federal dollars being brought back to Minnesota.  This would also be pandering to the wants and needs of his constituents, by making it his mission to bring more money back to Minnesota.  Mayhew would see this as a direct action to gain favor from voters in an effort to be re-elected.  This is because his constituents would want the money he is taking about getting them.

Credit Claiming

In the video below you will see Rick Nolan credit claiming.  In the video Rick Nolan talks about the bill he wrote.  He wrote the Buy American bill which places high tariffs on foreign steel imports, that will give local steel mills time to bounce back from "illegal steel dumping from china".  This credit claiming gives the people in his district he is working hard for there best interests by writing up bills that are in there best interest.  Mayhew on the other hand would claim that this is just an attempt to gather more voters from the steel workers in his district.
About a month ago many of Rick Nolan's agendas in the steel industry were being accomplished.  This was seen when the President Trump annouced support for american made pipelines.  With this Nolan reintroduced the American Pipelines and Saftey Act.  

























Monday, February 20, 2017

Image result for rick nolan elections vs stewart mills

The horse race of the century...Part 2 the return of Mills

In 2016 Democratic incumbent house member Rick Nolan faced off against Republican challenger Steward Mills.  Steward Mills ran against Rick Nolan in 2014 and narrowly lost by a margin of less than 2%.  It was highly likely that 2016 would be another close race. 

General election 2014

U.S. House, Minnesota District 8 General Election, 2014
PartyCandidateVote %Votes
    DemocraticGreen check mark transparent.pngRick Nolan Incumbent48.5%129,090
    RepublicanStewart Mills47.1%125,358
    GreenSkip Sandman4.3%11,450
    N/AWrite-in0.1%185
Total Votes266,083
Source: Minnesota Secretary of State

General election 2016

[hide]U.S. House, Minnesota District 8 General Election, 2016
PartyCandidateVote %Votes
    DemocraticGreen check mark transparent.pngRick Nolan Incumbent50.2%179,098
    RepublicanStewart Mills49.6%177,089
    N/AWrite-in0.2%792
Total Votes356,979
Source: Minnesota Secretary of State
As seen in the chart above Rick Nolan once again found a way to win.  He won the election by a margin of victory of 0.6%.  That comes out to about 2,009 votes.

Vote by countyNolanMills
St. Louis
68,547
42,889
Crow Wing
14,481
20,872
Chisago
13,190
16,150
Itasca
12,019
11,541
Isanti
8,379
12,020
Carlton
10,311
7,766
Morrison
6,349
10,811
Cass
6,287
9,407
Pine
6,519
6,991
Mille Lacs
5,536
7,056
Hubbard
4,729
6,567
Aitkin
4,167
4,862
Beltrami
3,542
4,461
Kanabec
3,435
4,507
Wadena
2,475
4,284
Lake
3,714
2,734
Koochiching
3,245
3,018
Cook
2,181
1,159

As seen in the table above Nolan had key victories in St. Louis, Itasca, Carlton, Lake, Kroochiching, and Cook Counties.

Primary Outlook: Rick Nolan being the well liked incumbent did not have a primary opponent.

General election outlook:  Steward Mills has ran against Rick Nolan in the last two general elections.  In these election he narrowly lost by margins less than 2%.  Because of this it is likely he could be a candidate in the next general election.   
Current Prediction:  Rick Nolan has won the last 2 elections against Stewart Mills by less than 2%.  If Stewart Mills chooses to run again against Rick Nolan it is likely to be another toss up horse race that could go either way depending on whose voters show up on election day.  Based on pasted history I would say Rick Nolan barley squeezes by once again.

2016 vote: In 2016 Rick Nolan was a super delegate and in the presidential primary voted for Bernie sanders.  Later in the general election he choose party lines and voted with Hillary Clinton. 

Campaign finance:

Campaign Cmte and Leadership PAC Fundraising, 2015 - 2016
Raised: $3,059,107
Spent: $2,896,970
Cash on Hand: $188,801
Debts: $0
Last Report:Saturday, December 31, 2016

Top 5 Contributors, 2015 - 2016, Campaign Cmte and Leadership PAC

ContributorTotalIndivsPACs
JStreetPAC$45,126$36,458$8,668
Heartland Realty Investors$33,900$33,900$0
Democratic Congressional Campaign Cmte$25,000$25,000$0
Intl Brotherhood of Electrical Workers$20,265$265$20,000
AmeriPAC: The Fund for a Greater America$18,100$5,400$12,700
https://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/summary.php?type=C&cid=N00021207&newMem=N&cycle=2016
Average cost of winning elections in the House and Senate since 1986 in 2012 dollars

The above chart shows the average house seat costing around 1.6 million dollars.  In the horse race between Rick Nolan and Stewart Mills Nick Nolan spent almost double about 2.9 Million Dollars.

Major issues:

Taxes and Spending

Nolan has stated that the "super-rich" should be targeted for tax increases. He has also voiced support for the stimulus spending championed by President Obama. He has stated that, "It did in fact create good jobs in a whole wide range of areas, not the least of which is in the field of transportation.

Veterans

Nolan voted in protest against the 2014 Veterans Affairs appropriations bill, which allocated $73.3 billion to veterans programs and military construction projects, "$1.4 billion more than what Congress budgeted" the previous year, because, he stated, "it under-funds veterans health and benefit programs.
Jobs! Jobs! Jobs!
Excerpt: "With 8th District unemployment at over 10% (not counting the thousands of discouraged Minnesotans who have quit looking for jobs) we need a congressman who knows how to meet a payroll and balance a budget.
Minnesota’s Farmers: Rick Nolan is working to bring stability and security to family farmers and our rural communities. He was recently awarded the National Farmers Union Golden Triangle Award for his leadership on family farmer and rural issues. Rick has worked hard to pass crucial dairy reforms to prevent skyrocketing milk costs, extend conservation programs, and promote organic farming and Beginning Farmer and Rancher programs. Working on the Farm Bill in 2013, Rick successfully included programs to promote the benefits of wood products, to give Minnesota’s timber industry a needed boost.
The Environment: The environment, our air, lakes, rivers and forests, are crucial to our 8th district economy. The degradation of our air and water, along with global warming, threaten the very survival of our species here on earth. We must protect the environment in order to preserve our way of life and our tourism industry. Rick works to protect northern Minnesota’s tourism industry and our lakes, rivers, and streams from dangerous invasive species such as Asian carp, and has passed programs that help farmers turn land over for conservation. Rick will continue to fight for funding to clean up pollution in the St. Louis River and for Lake Superior coastal cleanup and management, and has been called a “champion for the environment” by the League of Conservat``ion Voters.
This link is a link to the debate between Rick Nolan and Stewart Mills

Wednesday, February 15, 2017


Blog #2
Minnesota's 8th district  
Image of selected geography
District 8:

Rick Nolan is the house representative for district 8.  District 8 is in the upper east half of the state of Minnesota.  Rick Nolan is Reentering politics after a long absence from politics where he decided to develop his own personal business.  He used to be the house member for the district right below district 6.  As of 2012 he has been serving district 8.

Population: 
Male 335,783
Female 327,887
Total 663,670
Sex and AgeEstimate
Total population663,670
Male335,783
Female327,887
Under 5 years35,660
5 to 9 years38,977
10 to 14 years40,954
15 to 19 years40,979
20 to 24 years41,735
25 to 34 years74,455
35 to 44 years72,693
45 to 54 years90,352
55 to 59 years49,662
60 to 64 years51,849
65 to 74 years71,923
75 to 84 years38,407
85 years and over16,024
Median age (years)43.2
18 years and over523,117
65 years and over126,354

Major cities: District 8 biggest city is Duluth, Minnesota which is attached to the great lake Superior.  Its population is approximately 86,000.  Being on Lake superior Duluth is a well know tourist attraction.  This includes its famous bridge. 

 Image result for duluth mn population

Demographics
RaceEstimate
Total population663,670
One race646,384
White617,263
Black or African American6,417
American Indian and Alaska Native16,229
Asian4,676
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander231
Some other race1,568
Two or more races17,286

Income: 
Income and Benefits
(In 2015 inflation-adjusted dollars)
Estimate
Total households271,542
Less than $10,00015,099
$10,000 to $14,99913,970
$15,000 to 24,99929,579
$25,000 to $34,99928,785
$35,000 to $49,99940,883
$50,000 to $74,99957,653
$75,000 to $99,99935,533
$100,000 to $149,99932,791
$150,000 to $199,99910,435
$200,000 or more6,814
Median household income (dollars)$52,179
Mean household income (dollars)$66,410

Urban vs Rural: District 8 is a very large spread out district.  Because of this it is a largely rural distribution.  It is estimated to be 63% rural to 37% urban  

Major industries and companies:
IndustryEstimate
Civilian employed population 16 years and over318,152
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining9,529
Construction27,910
Manufacturing33,844
Wholesale trade6,495
Retail trade38,257
Transportation and warehousing, and utilities17,731
Information3,423
Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing16,207
Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services19,545
Educational services, and health care and social assistance84,053
Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services34,151
Other services, except public administration14,286
Public administration12,721

Major Companies: Duluth Trading company was started in Duluth, Mn.  They high comfort clothes for the everyday working man. 
Buck Naked Underwear


Party affiliation:  This district has been historically Democratic since 2000.  Since 2000 there was only one Republican Representative.  Rick Nolan is the current Democrat representative.  He beat republican incumbent  Chip Cravaak in 2010. 

Presidential vote:
In the presidential elections district 8 has also supported the democrats side in almost every election since 2000.  District 8 voted for Al gore 49% to 44% Bush, John Kerry 53% to 46% Bush, Barack Obama 53% to John McCain 45%,  Obama 52% to Romney 46%.

This years presidential election: 
Something changed this year, for the first time in a long time Donald Trump the Republican Nominee won in district 8 54% to 39% Hillary Clinton.