The horse race of the century...Part 2 the return of Mills
In 2016 Democratic incumbent house member Rick Nolan faced off against Republican challenger Steward Mills. Steward Mills ran against Rick Nolan in 2014 and narrowly lost by a margin of less than 2%. It was highly likely that 2016 would be another close race.
General election 2014
| U.S. House, Minnesota District 8 General Election, 2014 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Democratic |  Rick Nolan Incumbent | 48.5% | 129,090 | |
| Republican | Stewart Mills | 47.1% | 125,358 | |
| Green | Skip Sandman | 4.3% | 11,450 | |
| N/A | Write-in | 0.1% | 185 | |
| Total Votes | 266,083 | |||
| Source: Minnesota Secretary of State | ||||
General election 2016
| [hide]U.S. House, Minnesota District 8 General Election, 2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Democratic | Rick Nolan Incumbent | 50.2% | 179,098 | |
| Republican | Stewart Mills | 49.6% | 177,089 | |
| N/A | Write-in | 0.2% | 792 | |
| Total Votes | 356,979 | |||
| Source: Minnesota Secretary of State | ||||
As seen in the chart above Rick Nolan once again found a way to win. He won the election by a margin of victory of 0.6%. That comes out to about 2,009 votes.
| Vote by county | Nolan | Mills |
|---|---|---|
| St. Louis |
68,547
|
42,889
|
| Crow Wing |
14,481
|
20,872
|
| Chisago |
13,190
|
16,150
|
| Itasca |
12,019
|
11,541
|
| Isanti |
8,379
|
12,020
|
| Carlton |
10,311
|
7,766
|
| Morrison |
6,349
|
10,811
|
| Cass |
6,287
|
9,407
|
| Pine |
6,519
|
6,991
|
| Mille Lacs |
5,536
|
7,056
|
| Hubbard |
4,729
|
6,567
|
| Aitkin |
4,167
|
4,862
|
| Beltrami |
3,542
|
4,461
|
| Kanabec |
3,435
|
4,507
|
| Wadena |
2,475
|
4,284
|
| Lake |
3,714
|
2,734
|
| Koochiching |
3,245
|
3,018
|
| Cook |
2,181
|
1,159
|
As seen in the table above Nolan had key victories in St. Louis, Itasca, Carlton, Lake, Kroochiching, and Cook Counties.
Primary Outlook: Rick Nolan being the well liked incumbent did not have a primary opponent.
General election outlook: Steward Mills has ran against Rick Nolan in the last two general elections. In these election he narrowly lost by margins less than 2%. Because of this it is likely he could be a candidate in the next general election.
Current Prediction: Rick Nolan has won the last 2 elections against Stewart Mills by less than 2%. If Stewart Mills chooses to run again against Rick Nolan it is likely to be another toss up horse race that could go either way depending on whose voters show up on election day. Based on pasted history I would say Rick Nolan barley squeezes by once again.
2016 vote: In 2016 Rick Nolan was a super delegate and in the presidential primary voted for Bernie sanders. Later in the general election he choose party lines and voted with Hillary Clinton.
Campaign finance:
Campaign Cmte and Leadership PAC Fundraising, 2015 - 2016
| Raised: |  $3,059,107 | |
| Spent: | $2,896,970 | |
| Cash on Hand: | $188,801 | |
| Debts: | $0 | |
| Last Report: | Saturday, December 31, 2016 | |
Top 5 Contributors, 2015 - 2016, Campaign Cmte and Leadership PAC
| Contributor | Total | Indivs | PACs |
|---|---|---|---|
| JStreetPAC | $45,126 | $36,458 | $8,668 |
| Heartland Realty Investors | $33,900 | $33,900 | $0 |
| Democratic Congressional Campaign Cmte | $25,000 | $25,000 | $0 |
| Intl Brotherhood of Electrical Workers | $20,265 | $265 | $20,000 |
| AmeriPAC: The Fund for a Greater America | $18,100 | $5,400 | $12,700 |
The above chart shows the average house seat costing around 1.6 million dollars. In the horse race between Rick Nolan and Stewart Mills Nick Nolan spent almost double about 2.9 Million Dollars.
Major issues:
Taxes and Spending
Nolan has stated that the "super-rich" should be targeted for tax increases. He has also voiced support for the stimulus spending championed by President Obama. He has stated that, "It did in fact create good jobs in a whole wide range of areas, not the least of which is in the field of transportation.
Veterans
Nolan voted in protest against the 2014 Veterans Affairs appropriations bill, which allocated $73.3 billion to veterans programs and military construction projects, "$1.4 billion more than what Congress budgeted" the previous year, because, he stated, "it under-funds veterans health and benefit programs.
Jobs! Jobs! Jobs!
Excerpt: "With 8th District unemployment at over 10% (not counting the thousands of discouraged Minnesotans who have quit looking for jobs) we need a congressman who knows how to meet a payroll and balance a budget.
Minnesota’s Farmers: Rick Nolan is working to bring stability and security to family farmers and our rural communities. He was recently awarded the National Farmers Union Golden Triangle Award for his leadership on family farmer and rural issues. Rick has worked hard to pass crucial dairy reforms to prevent skyrocketing milk costs, extend conservation programs, and promote organic farming and Beginning Farmer and Rancher programs. Working on the Farm Bill in 2013, Rick successfully included programs to promote the benefits of wood products, to give Minnesota’s timber industry a needed boost.
The Environment: The environment, our air, lakes, rivers and forests, are crucial to our 8th district economy. The degradation of our air and water, along with global warming, threaten the very survival of our species here on earth. We must protect the environment in order to preserve our way of life and our tourism industry. Rick works to protect northern Minnesota’s tourism industry and our lakes, rivers, and streams from dangerous invasive species such as Asian carp, and has passed programs that help farmers turn land over for conservation. Rick will continue to fight for funding to clean up pollution in the St. Louis River and for Lake Superior coastal cleanup and management, and has been called a “champion for the environment” by the League of Conservat``ion Voters.
This link is a link to the debate between Rick Nolan and Stewart Mills
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